Analysis of the situation of China's paper industr

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The situation analysis of China's paper industry in 2001 and the outlook for 2002

on the whole, the national paper industry still maintained a relatively stable development in 2001. It is expected that the overall high holding pressure and cavity pressure of paper and paperboard will make the products in the cavity dense, and the total output of the country will be about 32.75 million tons, an increase of about 6% over 30.9 million tons in 2000; The consumption was more than 38 million tons, up about 5.2% from 36.16 million tons in 2000. However, the overall profitability will be difficult to keep pace with the growth of production and sales

China's paper industry is one of the few industries in China where the total supply exceeds the demand. In recent years, the annual gap is about 6million tons, mainly concentrated in high-grade paper and paperboard. In the first half of 2001, the import of all kinds of paper and paperboard was 2.635 million tons, a decrease of 16.4% over the same period last year, and the import of paper products showed a downward trend

in the first half of 2001, the recovery of the international paper industry after more than two years has basically come to an end. Since the beginning of 1999, pulp prices have gradually rebounded, and gradually led to the rise of global paper prices. By September 2000, the price of long fiber pulp had risen from about $500/ton at the beginning of 1999 to about $710/ton; The price of short fiber rose from about $450/ton at the beginning of 1999 to about $650/ton in September 2000; The increase rate is more than 40%. Correspondingly, the price of finished paper has also increased by a large margin. The prices of new standard property rights paper, coated paper for high-end books and periodicals printing, and Coated Whiteboard for gift high-end packaging have all increased by more than 30%

however, by the fourth quarter of 2000, the inventory of pulp and the momentum of production and supply had exceeded the demand. By the second quarter of 2001, after maintaining the high international pulp price for several months, it began to decline significantly. This downward trend has continued until now. The price of pulp has been almost the same as that at the beginning of 1999, and the price of finished paper has also fallen accordingly. Affected by this, the price of domestic paper products has also obviously felt the pressure of the market since the second quarter of 2001, and some products have begun to reduce prices. After July, reducing prices has become an inevitable choice for many enterprises

however, the biggest factor affecting the domestic paper industry is the continuous production of many new companies or new production lines in the past two years. Due to the large market demand and the relatively insufficient investment in the paper industry for a long time in the past, there has been a long-term gap between domestic supply and demand, which has attracted a large number of funds in recent years

at present, domestic enterprises with a scale of about 100000 tons have carried out technological transformation and launched new production lines, New enterprises "Therefore, the research scope of such centers will include 3D printing, which is extraordinary. A production line can reach the scale of more than 100000 tons, and the starting point is quite high. Therefore, it can be expected that the new production capacity will compete fiercely with imported paper products, including, of course, competition among domestic peers.

due to the intensification of market competition, the price of high-end paper this year will be reduced by a larger extent than that of medium and low-end paper products In 2000, the domestic paper market demand was strong, but the import volume of almost all major varieties fell to a certain extent, which shows that the domestic paper industry has launched a strong challenge to imported paper products. So far, this trend is still in progress

after China's entry into the WTO, it will not cause too much impact on the domestic paper industry, and can only increase the intensity of competition to a certain extent. The focus of competition is mainly on high-end paper products that account for about 25% of the market share, and the impact testing machine industry is no exception. The reason why it will not be greatly impacted after China's accession to the WTO is that the domestic market demand for high-grade paper will grow rapidly; Second, some domestic companies have the ability to replace imports

the result of competition will inevitably lead to the decline of product prices and the reduction of company profits. The company's profits will not increase linearly with the expansion of production scale, which determines that although the sales scale of many enterprises increased to a certain extent in 2001, the profit level is not ideal

from the perspective of the Tenth Five Year Plan of the paper industry and the market supply and demand situation, the production and sales scale of China's paper industry will continue to grow by 5-6% in 2002. Reflected in the product structure, the competition of medium and high-end paper products will be more intense. With the reduction of prices, it will directly threaten the survival of many small and medium-sized paper mills. It is an important part of the development of China's paper industry in the next few years to expand the scale and reduce costs through restructuring and mergers

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